The Fiber Debate

Is there a fiber glut or a looming shortage? That depends upon which indicators you use to track the amount of demand and available fiber, and one's outlook about the industry and its future. This week, two widely-followed publications argued that we're facing a bandwidth shortage.

First, at the "mass media" level, there was USA Today, which weighed in with Thursday with a column by tech reporter Kevin Maney suggesting a shortage "sooner than the conventional wisdom dictates." For the more discerning professional, the fiber-optic portal Light Reading offered a similar analysis based upon projections by equipment makers.

As always, the debate hinges on the "lit vs. unlit" issue of fiber utilization. Both the fiber glut and fiber shortage camps cite a litany of statistics to support their arguments. It reminds me of the old newsroom saying that statistics are often used "like a drunk uses a lamppost" - for support rather than illumination.